Probability of a ten-day rainfall period being equal to or greater than the reference evapotranspiration in southern half of the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
Keywords:
climatic risk, agroclimatology, water requirement.Abstract
In this study, the probability of rainfall in a ten-day period be equal to or greater than thc reference evapotranspiration in thc southern halfof the statc of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazi I was detcrmincd. Long-term weather data for a ten-day periods from 1961 to 1990 period werc used. Approximatcly 93% of the tcn-day rainfall periods analyzed adjusted to the distribution of exponencial probability. The probability of rainfall be equal to or greater than the reference evapotranspiration decreases to less than 50%, from de first ten-day period of October, to the first ten-day period of April. Thc ten-day periods with the highest risks (probability less than 30%) are between thc second tcn-day period of Novcmber and the third ten-day period oflanuary, bcing the west region that onc with highest risks. Thc results of this study may provido useful information for crop management (Sowing and harvcsting dates) and irrigation in the southern half of the State.
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