ZONING OF CLIMATIC RISKS FOR WHEAT IN RIO GRANDE DO SUL, SOUTHERN BRAZIL
Abstract
The climatic variability is a risk factor to agricultural activities. In Southem Brazil the main climatic risks forwheat production are frost at anthesis and excess rainfall at harvest time. This study of climatic risks zoning integratestechniques of crop modeling and simulation with geoprocessing tools in order to indicate the areas with lower risks for wheatcrop in Rio Grande do Sul, for each sowing period. The analysis of the risk maps shows that there is variability of climatic risksfor wheat growing in the State, according to the region and sowing period. The combination risk of frost at anthesis with riskof excess rainfall at harvest was used to define, for each County, the wheat sowing period of minimum risk, where the risk oflosses, due to the climatic factors studied, remained bellow the high risk range in 80% of the years.
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